episode 2 breakeven pod

All right, welcome back to episode two of the Break Even podcast. I'm Jamal and with me is Will, Adam and Louis and today we've got special guests Steve and Tom on the cast. Welcome, lads. G'day, guys. G'day, boys. Big week ahead. Yeah, Mark and Nedley won. All right, shall we start with the first question then? We'll give you a chance to answer separately so there's no talking over. We'll start with you, Steve. So why do you think your team is better and what is your opponent's biggest weakness this week? Well, it's plain and simple. It's plain and simple this week. There's a big man coming in. I banked a lot of cash last week, going from Clary down to Dee Brown. So I've had some cash to play with this week and I've moved on a couple, I'd say inconsistent performance into a quality, quality gun. The best available at the moment after the news. Boys, the news. Yeah, yeah. Hamstrings. So any theory holders out there? Apologies, boys. Apologies. Straight home, boys. We've got a couple in the group, don't we? Oh, just hands. Just hands. Get the letter here. No, your nan. Your nan. Your nan, huh? Are you coming back close to Origen as well? Maybe Bristol? Yeah. And that's why Nico Hines wants to play. Yeah. Plain and simple. Cash down to another half and then off to Nico Hines you go. Would you go Clary to Hines? I think if you've held, I think if you've held Clary for this long you have to just stay in it. But if he holds Zay, you're getting close to pretty much Origen anyway. I mean, you'd get rid of him. That's true. But then when you look at the New South Wales team, do they put Moses in at six after coming back one round before the first Origen game? I don't think they do. So therefore I think Hines slots him to six. I don't really see who else plays six for the boot. Jerome. Jerome. Jerome. He's a kid. He's a kid. Luwai. Luwai, mate. Luwai. Cody Walker. They won game three. They're not going to slot Hines in over Luwai. I think if Luwai gets injured, then Hines goes as well. I forgot about Luwai, actually. I think Luwai's got that six jersey. Six and seven. But isn't it your coach this year? Yeah, he's a form coach as well. He's a form coach. He picks on form. Yeah, he's not going to go back to something that's earlier than making the Parliament, I think. So it'll be interesting. Yeah, that's fair. What do you think's his biggest weakness? His biggest weakness? Yeah. I think, at the moment, I look through his team and I'll be honest with him, he's good at copying Jamie. He's got it. He's got it. He's got it. He's got it. He's got it. He's got it. He knows how to look at what Jamie's doing and do a similar thing. And I respect him for his starter team because it is quality. His starter team has been good. I suppose he was the right pick. I missed out on him, unfortunately. I think his biggest weakness is himself. I think that he puts a lot of pressure on himself and he lets other people... We have a look at these trades. Where's Morgan? We touched on it. You guys touched on it. But Morgan Smitty and Jesse Arthur's net run 64. They're explainable. They're explainable. We'll give you a chance, man. We'll give you a chance. Don't you worry, man. Right, should we give him the chance? Well, yeah. Can you... Tom, can you... Why do you think your team is better? And what is your opponent's biggest weakness? So I look at our team and it is like... I look at the team. It's not a bad squad. I think they are... Feels that great. Come on, mate. Great. And, yeah, I guess... I guess I've got him in the wing fullbacks and I've got him in the middle as well. He laps the big middle like Harrigan. Harrigan's a must. Harrigan's a must. I don't know. I think Smitty doesn't play A this week. I think there's a couple of other players that could come through. You have to speak. Don't be afraid. I think... I'll give you the middles. You've got Pat Carrigan, Pat Carrigan and Murray. You've got too much money, Smitty. How dare you call your wing fullbacks? You have Mr. Caelan Paul. You have Mr. Caelan Paul. And I'll tell you what. Everyone's about the same. Have you boys seen the Knights' draw coming up? If you guys don't own... If you guys in the listing right now don't own Caelan Ponder, you need to pick him up. Because over the next games, they go... Hold on. Give me a second here. They go... They go... They go Roosters who leak points. Defeated Roosters team. Dogs leaking points. Same with the Finns. Warriors, they'll lose. But Tigers and Tigers after that. So... That's a good one. That's a fantastic run. And I think if you don't have him, you're going to miss out on a lot of rank. But I can miss out this week against the Roosters for a potentially lesser score. And then pick him up from Cam Murray next week. Trading Cam. Trading Cam. Not a fair trade on the way, is it? Um... Sorry. What the fuck? I think that's a little bit... I think there's a little bit there. I mean, Cam has been very consistent. But Origen around the corner. Missing around seven. It depends where you are on the list, I think. For us. If you're top of the top, then you hold and stay there. But I think that if you're close to the bottom, then I think you've got to make some moves. You know, it's a C3 race, even. C3 race. Yeah, could be true. And you didn't know I had you. I heard you were going to go down this corner. No, no. I had some... You bringing him in, or? No, I've gone this week. This week. I've gone Blake Salangi and Jake T-Rex for Hines and Kayo Iroh. And I think I could go Kayo or Shevy. Shevy, I think his spot is a bit more solidified. But Kayo is a much better... But CSCF are a bit more solidified. CSCF are on the page. They wouldn't have CSCF on the page. It's a bad preserve. So that's why Iroh's spot might be a whole lot more solidified. No, it's not. Because you look at the Sharks' forward pack and how depleted it is. I think Tanukan's out. I can't even say. I also think that... No, no. Not Stella. Hamilton Euler as well. And they're two people that both start. Start from. What, so you think they can come back and then you can push back out to the... They don't have as many mids. But they have a team. All those big players today, they... And Telekarch had to be used to that. That's where he used to play. So are you fading Iroh? I'm not fading. I think he's a better fantasy scorer than Chevy. So are you bringing him in this week? No, I'm going to go with Chevy instead. Just because I like the job security. If you don't want Chevy to ralph him... See, from my perspective, though, my perspective, you look at Iroh's break-even at negative five and Chevy's at 16. I feel like there's a week to wait on Chevy. Yeah, but I also don't want to miss. I don't want to have another version of Blaze to lug in. Yeah, that's very fair. I'd get her a Blaze to lug in for Iroh and then the same thing happens and I waste another two trades. So I'd rather have someone actually in there. And that's probably my mistake in telling you. Sometimes it's the best cover. It's not actually the score, it's just the cover. He will be valuable. He is. He is. And a good team. Yeah, well, speaking of that... On a personal... So, Smack, who do you think was your best hiccup so far of the year? And then, behind that, who's your worst trade? Biggest miss. Biggest miss. Or worst trade out there for biggest miss. Biggest miss, definitely, 100% was Blaze. Hopping on Blaze last week. I had a Joe Chan sitting there doing nothing with his cash at $2.98. I saw Blaze at $3.01. Negative one break-even, starting six for the Eels. I thought he had that spot. Not on lock, but I thought he at least had... Because if the Eels are losing, How can Brad Arthur put that on a 19-year-old kid? It's exciting to an extension. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Exactly, but you should be able to... That Raiders game was like an anomaly. If you can hold Telagi and get rid of Joe Chan, it's worth it. Because I think Telagi is going to come back in at some point. They're injuring their backs. I think he's more likely to come back than Joe Chan. That's why I'm getting rid of Joe Chan. So if I was going to trade, I'd go and get rid of Joe Chan. Who was your best trade? My best trade? Trade-in? Trade-in, and then he just starts winning your weeks. He hasn't won in a lot of weeks, to be honest, so far. Sitting at 2 and 3. That was half the lead, though. I'd say that probably... Yes, he goes for our mate, actually. I was a week late on him as well, but he's still been fantastic. He needs to catch the bus. He needs to catch the bus this week. Well, Gordie, then, I think it's the same question. Trade-in of the year, just the consistent scoring. Speaking of which, Pat Garrigan. If I get up to 10 arses left, he's been... I think it's going to continue. And then I think he's the sort of player, maybe if the Broncos lose a couple of games, that could back out before Origi. But if not, then maybe, I don't know. He's at the top of the table. They're at the top of the table. They risk them, they risk them. I don't know. I think he has a hold to Origi. And what about your worst? Your worst section of trade-ins? Why are you saying that it's a section? We're just asking for a case. No, no, this is the worst section. I've made a couple dodgy ones. I think the worst one, point scoring-wise, was Morgan Smitty and Jesse Arthur's to Kyker's scoring-wise. I'd say for scoring-wise, that week, it was probably the worst bit. No-one knew that... No-one knew that... No-one knew that Horster was going to get injured, which was going to take some of these minutes. Even though Smitty's was way better. And then Jesse Arthur's, like, come on, he's going to be a sell at some point. You pick him up. He was sitting there. He was sitting there. You weren't even playing him. He was sitting in your emergency seat. I was playing him. With the depleted stuff at the moment, but, like, you don't have to have him there as a player. There's, like, a cost when you're open. You don't really want him to take too much cash because he's a shitter, but... You'd rather him make this than not make this. You know what he's going to, and, like, you don't really trade him out at, like, 340, 40? No, he's at 390 now. 390? Well, Jesse Arthur's 390. Um... Tom, you kind of touched on it, but...with Cam Murray, but any sort of big moves or any moves that you guys are looking at making within the next few weeks? Start with you, Tom. Yeah, so this week, I feel like he's going to get one of the big dogs at some point. A good captaincy option, and I feel like if Niggo Hines doesn't play Origin, he's there for round 13 and 14, which are two big rounds to have a big player like that. But I think SJ also is... A good option, if you can't get to Hines. Yeah, if you can't get to Hines, or... I don't know. What about that ham? Has anyone heard about that hamstring level that SJ missed? No. He's been kicking. Apparently he limped off. He went off early last game. He limped off. He went off because we were up. He didn't limp off. He went off because we were up. But he still had the niggle. Because when he scored that try that he scored, he stayed down for a bit, but then played on. He didn't stay down as well. He was riding like nobody in 13. If you've already got, like, Foge and Dylan Brown in there, then they're both playing 13, so you need someone else. You don't want all three of them missing in the same week. I think Foge is there for round 13. Yeah, Foge and Dylan Brown are. So that's the standard in the works for me, maybe not Pines or Cleary. Alright, we'll see. What are your minutes? Um... Well, I'm also looking into Cam Murray as a sell. Just for the fact that I just need to get a few wins under my belt, I think. I'd probably put it somewhere, save myself a trade somewhere and go a non-origin, whether that's Tahu or whether that's um... I'm not too sure. Cash down somewhere. ASB? ASB, but he's very trial-reliant. He scores 50 or he scores 80 or I don't know. He is a good option, I think. I think he's still on the down-low. He's still going down. So if you were to buy somebody off after the buy, as you're going down the road, you've got to maybe do something like Josh Curran or something. But the Wilds don't play round 13, so you'd have to do that, what, round 9? Round 9, round 10. I think I was buzzed. Lars, I think you had a question. What was it? Oh yeah, boys, so we'll start with you, Tom. So going into the 26 rounds, who are you most worried about playing? Most worried about playing? It's hard to think about, no. I've got this guy boiling his tongue. I don't look that way right now. Well, I don't know if many people are scared to play you. No, we know what Pac does, he falls. I don't know if you have a Pac game. So what, who do you reckon? Like Porch or someone? Don't throw shade at Porch, mate. No, that's not shade. Yeah, a little bit. There's some formidable teams, maybe. I guess you're on a bad week, Lars, when you're having a big one. How many times have you made the end? It's coming this year, though. How many times have we got the wooden spoon? Mate, I'm too concerned, I don't know what you're talking about. At least you guys know there's a wooden spoon there. No, but Gordie, mate, you were in the closet first season. Gordie, you've got the debut wooden spoon. And you didn't even know it was out. I didn't agree with some of the... Lars, you had a few dodgy calls in that first pod, I was thinking. I feel like you were just more throwing stuff out there, just for the sake of saying stuff, without any... There's a little logic behind it. No, no, no, that's correct. There's a little logic behind most of it. Some of the calls, I was... Tell you what, Mitch, he was not happy with some of the calls. He is mickeying around, though. He's up there, but like, overall... If he's mickeying, it'll get found out. No shade, though, Mitch. No shade. He did that about Beast last season. He mickeyed his way through and then won. Ask Matt your answer to Blask's wonderful question. Who are you most afraid of in the league? No one, really. If I had to really choose one, if I had to choose one, I'd probably go Cheeseless. Cheeseless. Cheeseless. Cheeseless on and off week. You don't want to be losing to a Cheeseless. Shout out, yeah, now. Hey, folks. Swatty's a scary one, though, because if you lose to him, he's not going to... He's 5'5". Yeah. He's got the voice of a 7-footer. It's like a Maltz, really. Just those little short legs. Barbed mine. Maltz. Maltz. Alright, well, next time we'll go around the room, start with you, Lusk. So, you don't have to say your actual captain if you don't want to, just with you two being in the room. But we'll go around, who's everyone captaining? And then also, if you don't have him, who else do you think would be a good option to captain this week? Oh, there's only one man you can captain this week. There we go. Nicko Hodes. Nicko Hodes. He's got the band. I don't agree. You could not agree, but he is the clear-cut number one captain. Captain's the option this week, 100%. No two-way about it. Unless you're in Germantown. He's got the orange band for this week. We'll see how it goes. We'll come back and review. It's got me in the dummies. Three weeks in a row it's got me in the dummies. His bar stand's been 40, hasn't it? His floor is 60. His floor's 45. He could be 100 at any given. Keep holding that one wheel position. Yeah, I will. I'm sitting pretty at the top of the ladder, mate. I can hold it for as long as I want. So what, I'm guessing you guys both have good skills? Yeah. So what about you two? Are you going to disclose or are you just going to keep talking? I think we're both going Heinz. This guy's busting up his team to get Heinz in. I don't think he's busting up. A lot of people are trading the same. Can you trade me after this week? I will then. So who are you trading out for? Who are you trading out for? So, I have Imjid Rapana Imjid Rapana and Kerez. Okay, so behind Kerez, I reckon one sec, let me my boot's sweet as, don't worry about it. Are you trying to say you've got a better boot? No, no, no, Kerez, I'll tell you who's fix just coming up. Could score right here tonight by Tigers, Panthers, Raiders. And I just don't think he's scoring anything. He's one of those paperwork guys. He's not going to score seemingly in like a close game. He should just have a great time. He's a guy that happens to him all the time. He's definitely on the I don't think so. He's got that jaw as well. He needs to be a sell. So I reckon I'd love to hold him through that line. And then, I don't know, bring it high into obviously there's so much more on him. There's no real cap and see options. No one's really getting on with him. He'll add a bit of stuff to his head. Yeah, he needs Pia Cora though. I think he's still, he's not next round, he's round after. I just don't think he's worth enough to sell him. He's very sexy. He's got a spot there. He scores well when he's there as well. What about you? Who are you capping next week? I don't actually know. I might just have to go with Harry Grant. The only guy I've got lingering around really that you can cap. I don't really want to cap to KP. I know, but I don't really want to cap to I can't really cap to anyone else. Oh yeah? Oh yeah? Just pause the record. Just pause the record. Don't embarrass yourself. Don't embarrass yourself. At the end of tonight we'll come back to this and I'll listen to this and I'll listen to it purely just to hear myself say that. I can't wait for him to do that. I have to get on with it. I'm keen to see him going for 50 this week and then I can go from Cam Murray to him next week. Wake him in his hoops. Wake him in his hoops. 30-40 K this week. He just has to get ironed in. He's got to bust that team behind him. Keep busting, boy. Keep busting. Keep busting. Keep busting. I think I'm 11.3 as well. I'm pretty sure I'm 11.3 as well. I'm pretty sure I'm 11.3 as well. He's lying. What? Tom, you are smarter than the computer, Tom. Tom, you are smarter than the computer, Tom. Tom, you are smarter than the computer, Tom. Tom, you are smarter than the computer, Tom. Tom, you are smarter than the computer, Tom. Tom, you are smarter than the computer, Tom. Tom, you are smarter than the computer, Tom. Tom, you are smarter than the computer, Tom. Tom, you are smarter than the computer, Tom. Tom, you are smarter than the computer, Tom. Tom, you are smarter than the computer, Tom. 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He's a similar, I'd say, similar player to him. Well, Angus Crichton... He's more of an attacking threat. Angus Crichton is a better option, purely because... And he's 100k less. And he's 100k less. Yeah. You're playing off minutes restrictions. Angus Crichton's good in base as well. Yeah. Will? I actually had this on my head last week, and it was fucking sneaky. Isaiah Katoa, on my head. Ooh, the big port. The big port, yeah. Tony Port. Isaiah Katoa. He's got a quality port. Tony Port. He's pulled up, and he's got an extension as well. So, I don't... Isaiah Katoa at 475k as well. Yeah, he's sneaky. Yeah, he does. He's sneaky. He's done wonders with that guy. I think 475 Isaiah Katoa is... He's probably about 70k too high. Ooh, I think he's got more value in it. No, I don't think so. You've got to look at who the Dolphins have been playing with as the easiest round. That is true. I think his base is quality, though. No, I don't think so, because you look at his last score, and it was... He got a 50, a 27, and then another 50. He got a 50 first try. I feel like the whole thing about Isaiah Katoa is he's playing with confidence now. They've dropped Sean O'Sullivan for Isaiah Katoa, and they've given him the extension. I feel like he's going to be... I feel like he's changed the way he plays now that he's playing. He's got no worries. He's not on a trial basis. He's probably 19 still. He has worries, though. He's not shooting himself in the brain. What about you, Jamal? Well, my guy, he actually had quite a high percentage of ownership, but I actually haven't met anyone with him, and that is my man Stefano Uto Ikemanu. And I've been looking at him as well. Man, I was just looking at some parody mids, and he's got some big bones in him, pretty consistently. Hasn't Tom been looking at you? Yeah, Tom's been looking everywhere. Average a lot of tackle breaks. There's a lot of tackle breaks that he does. No one mentions him, though. I think that 77 was quite an anomaly for him. I think you can average 50 different times. Yeah, agreed. I wouldn't pick him up, but... He's got, like, two, three points of value. And at the same time, he could be playing Origins as well. He will be playing Origins, I think. Yeah, absolutely. Now would be a bit dodgy, but... I'm not sure he's been playing Origins. Maybe. I think he was an absolute fuck-up of an Origins pick last year, and I'm not sure if that'll... They won't do it again, but... Oh, nah, yeah. Origins. For sure. Yeah, I'm not sure. I think he should be starting over in Campbellville out of Origins. Some more of, like, a Regan. He's been pretty shit this year, exactly. All right, well, should we go through each game this week, and we'll go winners? Who do you think's gonna win each week? Well... No, in terms of matches. Oh, match-ups? We'll start with UCF. We'll go Roosters v Knights. Who have you got? I have the Knights. Knights? I have the Knights. And then you've got... Then we've got Dog Storm. I've got Storm. Broncos, Dolphs? Broncos. Wyze, Manly? Wyze, easy one. Wyze, 20-plus. It's actually true. Paramount and Cowboys, I mean. I have... I have the Cowboys. I have the Cowboys, yeah. Like, I don't think you can beat... I don't think you can take EOS up last week and get... and get that race going. Sharks, Bunnies? I think Sharks, Bunnies, Sharks take it up, but I think it's gonna be a little bit closer this week than everyone thinks. I think that, um... I think the Bunnies' last-ditch effort, I think... I mean, Sharks got a go, to be honest, but if they don't do anything this week, then... I think this is the most... I don't think they've been deterred from that this week. Oh, the Bulls could almost compete with it. Oh, I think they've got a shot. I mean, Cookie's not their problem, right? I mean, what has happened there? He's been carrying some sort of niggles. No, mate. He's been sad, disappointed. If he was carrying a niggle, then, um... Attitude problem, we reckon. He's been the best player. All right, well, this is an interesting one. I think this is gonna be a close game. Tiger's Dragons. Oh... I think... Oh... It's a real tight one. I think the Dragons. Without Lockheed Galvin. Lockheed Galvin there, different story, I think. But I'll take the Dragons. And then Canberra... Canberra Titans? Canberra. Yeah. Canberra. Canberra will expect semi from this week. Couple tries. Couple involvement. Couple try involvement. All right, and who... Oh... Maltese? No, Gordie. Oh, not Gordie. Not Gordie. So you... Are you on similar ideas with those results? You've got a little hot tag for us. No, no, I don't know about that. I think the first game tonight, I think the Knight, Bruce, is extremely biased. He's just... Yeah, he's a KPO. Depleted. Depleted. Bruce's team, though. That's... No, it is depleted, but I just... I don't know. I think the Roosters... I think Terry Robinson's given them a massive kick up the arse. I'm sorry about that. I'm sorry to interrupt, but Conor Watson... Conor Watson at six. Conor Watson... Last week... Conor Watson defensively is... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... 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That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's... That's...