Trudeau v. Poillievre Aug 24 2023

Amy, a long-time listener, has sent an email wondering if there will be an election in 2024. The public opinion polls show a preference for the conservative party and Pierre Poliev, especially among millennial voters. The host believes that if there is an election, it will be a two-person race between Justin Trudeau and Poliev. Despite speculation, Trudeau is unlikely to step down as leader. The host also discusses the challenges facing both parties and the importance of presentation in politics. Welcome to the Bill Kelly Podcast, a critical conversation in critical times. I'm your host, Bill Kelly, so glad to have you with us once again. Great response, especially from a number of our former radio listeners who have jumped on board with the advent of the podcast, Critical Conversations in a Critical Time, including one in particular, a long-time listener to the radio program. We'll call her Amy since that's her name, but I don't want to give away the last name. A fan of politics, we always follow Canadian politics together on the program, and she's wondering, somewhat whimsically I guess, whether or not 2024 is going to be an election year. There's so much to unpack here, Amy, and I'll try to address some of the concerns. It's rather lengthy email, but the gist of it is, is what are Canadians going to do? Look at the public opinion polls that are coming out right now. There seems to be a decided edge toward the conservative party as opposed to the governing liberals, and Pierre Poliev seems to be rising, especially with millennial voters. So where does that leave us if, in fact, there is going to be an election? And by the way, I don't think there is, but we'll get into that in just a couple of minutes. I think to begin with, if this is going to happen in 2024, we, I think, all have to appreciate and understand and acknowledge the fact that this is going to be a two-person race. I know there are other political parties, and I know there are some steadfast NDP supporters out there, but I think you have to be practical about this. The NDP are not going to form a government, which is one of the reasons why there's not going to be an election this year. This is going to be a two-person race between Justin Trudeau and Pierre Poliev, and it will be between those two. I know that there's been some speculation over the last couple of months now that Justin Trudeau is going to ride off into the sunset and step down as leader. I don't see that happening at all for a couple of reasons. First and foremost, if he was looking for an escape hatch, the time to talk about that would have been the time that he announced his separation from his wife, i.e., I'm going to step down, too, and need to spend more time with family. We need to sort things out. We've seen public officials do that in the past. That didn't even seem to be in the prime minister's mind when he made that announcement about, unfortunate announcement that is, about he and his wife separating. Trudeau's here for the long term. That's all there is to it. If anything, we found out about Justin Trudeau over the last little while. He likes to maintain control. He wants to be in charge. He demands loyalty from his people, and if he doesn't get that loyalty, there are ramifications. Jody Wilson-Raybould could tell you all about that. Anita Annan could tell you about that. She was a rising star in this Cabinet. She handled herself and I thought acquitted herself quite well during the pandemic when it came to getting supplies, both vaccines and other paraphernalia. That was her bailiwick. She was recently awarded, of course, the Defense Portfolio. She vowed to and seemed to be on the right track to finally address some of the shortcomings and some of the concerns in the Defense Ministry for the last number of years, but she got bounced in the last Cabinet shuffle. Basically, we're told from my sources in Ottawa, because, well, she was making noises that she kind of wanted to be the next leader when Justin Trudeau stepped down. There will be no challenges to the throne with Justin Trudeau. She's now a Treasury Board. She's still in Cabinet, but a lesser role, to be frank about it, and I think lesson learned, which leads us to the next point about this. Even if he stepped down, if he amazed me and you and lots of other people in this country and said, you know what? I've reconsidered. I'm stepping down. There is nobody, nobody in the shadows to come in here and actually take over this job. Oh, there are no shortage of people that would like to be the liberal leader right now and like to be the prime minister, but I don't see any of them that have the pedigree to do it right this time. I mentioned Anand. She certainly was in the running. Melanie Jolie is there, Minister Champagne. There's a bunch of them that are wannabes, but I don't see anybody who has the profile or the charisma that the Canadian public could gravitate to. The liberals have got some making up to do because of what they've been doing the last little while in the track record. So like it or not, whether you're a backbench liberal or just a steadfast liberal supporter for the last number of years, whenever we go into this next federal election, Justin Trudeau is going to be the leader of that party. I don't see that changing at all. On the other side, we mentioned it was a two-person race. You've got the Conservatives and Pierre Paulieff. Now, he has only been on the job for about a year and has had a, shall we say, a rocky start to the season. He won the leadership decisively, of course. And again, we can argue that there wasn't anybody of any major consequence running for that leadership as well. Jean Charest, the former Quebec premier and former Brian Mulroney cabinet minister, of course, was probably his main contender, but he was categorized by many people in the Conservative Party as just, well, yesterday's man, and we don't want that sort of thing going forward. So Pierre Paulieff is the guy. Now, he's languishing in the polls and has been for quite some time. His own personal ratings, that is, the Conservative Party has been neck and neck with the liberals and now has surged ahead over the last couple of months. A quick note about that, though. Public polling and partisan polling and political polling has to be taken with a grain of salt. And I'm not, you know, trying to challenge the credibility of it, because we have talked to many people that do this for a living and they're very good at their job and they present this information, the data that they've accumulated. But what we have to remember with polls is they are a snapshot in time. It doesn't mean this is how people are going to feel forever more about something. It means how they feel that particular day when they got the email or the phone call or whatever it was. If they're really pissed off about something, they're going to show that with their opinions in answering those questions. If they're rather comfortable, that could change. And you always have to be mindful of polling. And maybe one of the better examples of that was here in Ontario just before the last provincial election. Doug Ford was just finishing up his first term as premier. His approval rating was right in the toilet. I mean, people were just saying, he's toast. He's mishandled the pandemic. The economy is going south. He's just not doing anything right right now. He's doing nothing but getting people angry at him. And that was then, and that was about six months before the provincial election. And we all know what happened. And he surged to a huge, huge, not just a victory once again, but a major victory, increasing the number of seats as opposed to losing power. And now there's something to be said for the power of incumbency, because you control the bank and the money, and you can make promises and deliver on some of those promises. And Ford certainly took advantage of that. But that's also something I think Justin Trudeau could and probably will do when, in fact, we get around to election mode. The problem with his main opponent, though, Pierre Polyev, is, well, numerous, shall we say. There's a number of different facets to this. He tried to make a name for himself initially with some of the policies of, you know, Bitcoin, we should drop our monetary system, fire the Bank of Canada governor, as a matter of fact, fire the Bank of Canada, and took a much more radical approach to a number of issues. And it seemed to rub people the wrong way. As we've talked about many times on this, our program over the years, Canadians are basically a middle-of-the-road political country. Now, we will go, you know, slightly to the right, slightly to the left, depending on the circumstance, and sometimes the individuals of the party. But I don't think this country likes extremes. And a lot of people looked at some of the things that Polyev was talking about and some of the proposals that he was making as extremists. And there was a concern here that, look, that's maybe not the sort of person that we want as prime minister. He's just maybe a little bit out of touch, a little bit cold. There were some people that even went to the extent of saying, look, we don't even just like the way this guy looks. Presentation is everything in politics. And there was a concern about just the aura, the demeanor of Mr. Polyev. And that matters to people. It may not be fair, but it matters. If you're a relatively good-looking person and you present yourself well and you're articulate, you've got a leg up on your opponent if they are not as well-versed in some of those aspects as you are. And so that's a factor in politics, like it or not. And the conservatives are aware of that, which is why they went through the big makeover with Polyev. And I guess that's continuing now. But it started rather slowly, but it was quite obvious that there's something going on. Remember that. They ditched the glasses, first of all. Some people characterize it as the point extra glasses. And he's obviously doing the contact thing. Ditch the tie. You know, Pierre, T-shirts under your sports jackets now. You don't have to, you know, slow button down all the time. Let it loose. Just take it easy. And as I was watching this unfold, it was rather interesting. A friend of mine was saying, you know, that kind of reminds me of the makeover. Remember the movie Miss Congeniality with Sandra Bullock, which is an undercover FBI agent, and she's going to go into a beauty pageant. So they have to do the big makeover on her. And it's intense stuff over, like, a 24-hour period. How to walk better, how to talk better, and how to dress better, and on and on and on. And I wonder if that was what was going on behind the scenes with Polyev. It is a different presentation. You know, the glasses, no glasses make a difference. A lot of politicians have opted for that. Preston Manning, when he was with their foreign party, ditched the glasses. David Peterson, back in the mid-1980s, when he wanted to run for the Ontario leadership of the Liberal Party, ditched the glasses. And it works. So maybe it is going to work for Polyev to some extent. The problem with Mr. Polyev, though, is that it can be a new presentation, a different-looking Polyev, you know, shopping at the Gap now. But when he opens his mouth, it's the same old Polyev, with what some people consider some rather drastic initiative. And I'm not sure about people's comfort level with that. And initially, when these policies are announced, then people can make up their minds about this. But, you know, also keep in mind, this is summertime. People aren't paying a whole lot of attention to politics. They're paying a whole lot of attention to some of the issues around here, the fact that, you know, our forests are burning to the ground, housing prices are out of reach, inflation is killing us here. And those are issues that are on our mind, as opposed to the politics themselves around them. However, to his credit, Mr. Polyev is doing his darndest to try to attach every one of these issues that we're concerned about to Justin Trudeau. It's all Justin Trudeau's fault. Now, I don't know how many people are actually going to buy that argument. It is impractical. A lot of the stuff that's going on these days that is affecting you and me are global issues. It's not a Canadian-only issue. But if you're angry and you're really pissed off that you can't renew your mortgage or you can't afford a house or you can't afford a tank of gasoline these days, you're going to want to blame somebody. And the politicians, especially the ones who are in power at any given time, are the ones who are going to take most of the heat for that. And that's certainly happening with Justin Trudeau and the liberals. So can Polyev take advantage of that anger? Can he corral that anger and use that against the government? And will people rally to him? I'm not so sure. And it just doesn't appear to be happening because Mr. Polyev seems to lack the kind of charisma that Canadians may be looking for in a political leader. And that's just what he is. I mean, there are a lot of people that have been elected to public office that are considered to be drab and boring, but they still get elected nonetheless. So that's to be determined. So I'm not exactly sure. I circle all the way back to the beginning of our conversation here with our listener, Amy. I don't think there's going to be an election until 2025. The NDP would be decimated in another federal election. Right now they have an opportunity to exert some power on the liberals in government. And we've seen them do that with some policies. If the liberals lose the next federal election, the NDP lose that wedge. They've got no power. They've got no say in what's going on. Jagmeet Singh is not going to make any sort of a deal with Pierre Polyev and vice versa. So the NDP, the last thing I think they want to see here is a federal election. So it's going to be these two guys. It's going to be Justin against Pierre. And, well, I know the way this is being characterized right now, and judging from the performance of both of these individuals and the way that people seem to view them, when we do go to the polls, whenever that's going to be for the next federal election, it kind of seems to me, and I think kind of seems to a lot of Canadians, that what they're going to have to choose here is the lesser of two evils. That's it for today. We thank you once again for being part of the program today. This is the Bill Kelly Unplugged podcast, a critical conversation in a critical time. See you later. Let me do that one again. We've got to go. That's all for today. Thank you so much for being part of the program today. And, as always, we thank you for logging on, for joining us on our podcast each and every day. 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