EP. 33

welcome to the bill kelly podcast critical discussions in critical times here's your host bill kelly and welcome to the bill kelly podcast critical discussions for our critical times on your host bill kelly great to have you with us and uh... for those of the just something out of the podcast happy new year uh... we did this on a regular basis you can catch us wherever you get your podcast and that will cover the issues and and your opinions and uh... your thoughts on some of the key things that are going on uh... to that end as we look forward to twenty twenty four it's a it's a a year with a great big question mark after it uh... because we don't know we've talked about the u.s. political situation uh... looks like it's going to be biden versus trump and what how's that going to end uh... we don't know the canadian politics there's no scheduled election federally here in twenty twenty four but that doesn't mean it can't happen and i will certainly follow that but there are major issues here happening globally that were front page news and they were things that politicians right around the world we're talking about uh... that seems to have dimmed in the passage of time that seems to happen i guess with a lot of issues and to put some perspective on this we're so pleased to welcome back to the podcast elliot tepper who is a distinguished senior fellow and a professor of political science at carlton university elliot great to have you with us thanks for kicking off twenty twenty four with us uh... i want to go back and i certainly want to get your your read on what's happening with gaza these days and and the latest developments there let's go back to something you and i started talking about uh... well over two years ago now uh... that being the russian invasion of ukraine uh... as a matter of fact we're coming up every twenty fourth i think it is will be the second anniversary of that invasion we as you reminded us before that's not the first time the russia's set foot on on ukrainian soil uh... but it's it's a lot lasting an awful lot longer uh... that it probably should have and a lot of people expected it uh... to last i know that just the other day prime minister truett had a conversation with the president and then basically said uh... you know it will be there as long as it takes i don't know if that's under their control i mean the way things are going right now on the battleground uh... it seems as if the russians have a foothold there's some talk that you've heard and that i've heard over the last little while from some other world leaders uh... they're suggesting look at maybe we just better have a negotiated settlement uh... zelensky doesn't want any part of that talk to us about what you see in and and your perspective on that well first of all a great way to start the new year is starting with you and starting with this topic uh... you and i have been talking about it over a long period of time and in fact the anniversary i think of the invasion really started in january when mr putin went to beijing for the olympics ostensibly but basically he went to get china's backing for what would be the invasion which nobody was expecting at that point which he'd announced more or less and uh... china said sure we'll back you up they signed a big long agreement but sub rosa the real agreement was we'll back you up but don't don't invade until our olympics are over don't lean in our parade so as soon as it was over indeed uh... the invasion began that invasion was as you reminded us just now a follow-up to an earlier invasion it wasn't the first time twenty fourteen russia unprovoked uh... when there was no hint whatsoever ukraine could actually be either in the e.u. or more importantly for russia you uh... nato but they attacked them anyway really history returned as we said at that point seventy years international law international practice and expectations were after the end of a second world war which almost devastated the planet it wasn't going to happen again states weren't going to change national boundaries by invasion and occupation and that was uh... the accepted norm that was the united nations charter was built on the fact you do not change national sovereignty and borders by invasion and russia did that and as we say returning us to history we're living in that history now the uh... quickly review on that uh... we talked about it you and i over time russia thought they would have a one week war bill they thought they would go in plan a uh... they were going to go in they were going to decapitate kiev right away they were going to install a public government have a referendum and in a week ukraine would be gone uh... the completion of the twenty fourteen invasion would happen uh... we know the plan a didn't work plan b uh... was ok never mind that now what we're really after our actual goal our real goal is to consolidate and take over the rest of the donbass which they had tried they had partial control of and consolidate their control over primea plan b didn't work out either we're in plan c of the russian invasion uh... they are still at it and we are uh... we are at a perilous point now will war fatigue actually be what defeats ukraine and it seems to be going that way and i'm not going to suggest that the russians are going to roll over them because we we understand there's still some victories there uh... for ukraine on the battlefield and that and that's that's good to know that that's still happening but i guess what bothers me is what's going on well what happened two years ago in the official invasion in february of twenty twenty two the outrage the global outrage from all circles i mean with the obvious exception of places like iran and china and russia shorter of course uh... but uh... but you know nato nations of the g seven the g twenty just lambasted uh... putin and the russians for doing this and now that just it's not on anybody's radar i mean you'd be hard-pressed to if picked up a newspaper and go online uh... i don't know if anybody buys newspapers anymore but uh... do you see anything about this and and beyond found that you do i mean it's awesome coverage of one of the stories will keep was attacked of course uh... uh... just last week again with uh... another shelling that caused extensive damage and loss of life uh... these are cities and these are people who live in little mud hut someplace these are major european cities that are being leveled and and we're outraged about gaza because i guess that's the latest one but it's still going on and has been going on for over two years in ukraine and not too many people are paying much attention to it now yes and that's a real risk in fact that's the gamble that mister putin is uh... basing his entire victory on he's going for victory he plans to eliminate the existence of ukraine as a state and incorporated into into uh... russia but also in doing so changing the geopolitics of the world bringing russia right into the heart of europe russian missiles russian tanks russian nuclear weapons potentially and then perhaps continuing with what you just said as nobody cares anymore slowly but methodically taking apart something that he helped create a much more unified nato a much more unified e.u. his invasion shocked i think by creating basically a new reinvigorated e.u. and reinvigorated nato patiently he can dismember that and then move on to further conquest so much rides on not allowing mister putin to win in ukraine that it is indeed imperative please we're having this conversation that we keep in mind that the geopolitics of the world it's one of those things pay now or pay later and we should talk about the payment how much it's costing what it means is that if mister putin wins and china is backstopping him the geopolitical situation world will go much much darker for countries canada uh... i mean we're talking to talk and know that he the prime minister's comments that there's a lot to just the other day were there for as long as it takes and that's that's wonderful to hear what's great in print uh... and they've made a contribution and and i know there's a lot of criticism about what they've said and what they could be doing it in response to that but i guess the other concern here is like you say the stated goals that uh... a ukraine and zelensky's comments when he addressed the u n and uh... the well the the canadian parliament and others during some of these visits north america which you've got a lot of senator you've got a lesson there for our own protection and and and it's the domino theory of we fall the the rest of the fall we all know what putin's long-term plan is here it's it's being delayed by about two years now but he's not going to give up on this and ukraine is key for him in the village he can't go to the next step of the next country until he gets this one settled and now some of those people that seem to be adamant in their support for zelensky are now starting to wane and say look at maybe we need a mediated solution well you know any mediated solution is not going to say okay russia get out of there they're going to take over part of ukraine uh... they they occupy a portion of it now they want that or more and then and zelensky knows that and i'm sure the people that are seemingly turning their back on this know that but where where's the support for it at this stage there is in fact a great deal of support for ukraine the messaging coming out of moscow is we're winning this war and they've got reason to show that because hey everything you just talked about is happening the tension is wavering and domestic u.s. politics now becomes the key to whether ukraine will indeed uh... fall to putin and the west's interest in canada's interest will also therefore suffer the entire situation right now is that we cannot allow the normalization of a big state just deciding to pummel its neighbor destroy its neighbor because they feel like it this is russian imperialism we need to stop it the idea that yes you know we can't really see a victory path for ukraine we heard that on day one uh... when u.s. offered bill to send an airplane to take zelensky out of the country he said no don't send a ride send ammunition and we know what's happening u.s. is spending something like four percent of its military budget and maybe one percent of its gdp ukraine without losing a single american soldier dismembering what was considered to be the second most powerful army in the world this is a good deal for the west and absolutely critical in terms of our geopolitical future so we cannot allow this you know you gotta realize ukraine is a small power compared to russia russia's much much bigger uh... they've got far larger army they've got many more resources and that kind of conversation well ukraine we're not going to tell you what to do but you really gotta give up now you gotta let ukraine lose crimea to russia you gotta give up part of the donbass they're not saying that explicitly but that's what it means and then you can have peace well we know better than that don't we sure we do and i think that's the fear you know as you mentioned to us on past visits uh... we've seen this this play before we know how this ends and we know that putin as you say just like his buddy donald trump plays the long game uh... you know okay i'll take a few hits and a few body blows i'll just throw more soldiers in there and pull them off the streets of moscow and then put a uniform on them and and that's that's what's starting to happen but when you start hearing some of the comments uh... from republicans south of the border for instance because they initially of course when they give this temporary measure to their financial problems uh... they withheld the support for ukraine in that you've got our leader of the opposition pierre pollio uh... characterizing ukraine as this little country on the other side of the world and why are we paying so much attention to that when we should be cutting the carbon tax these are lives that are being lost and even if you don't understand that i don't i i i hope the hell these people do understand that they don't understand the ramifications of this that if you let this go uh... you know putin keeps going and is going to have an impact on our economy and we've already seen that uh... every time we talk about this god-awful recession that we seem to be coming out of right now uh... they say well the war in ukraine was one of the contributing factors because of what it did to the global markets et cetera how much longer are we going to put up with this before we realize that we've got to do something about this to do something about that it's always i guess human nature you pay attention to the crisis of the moment the issue of the moment and also where we're directed don't look over here look over there and uh... russia's past master of that uh... they uh... we have to realize that what is going on right now is mr putin decided well he's plan a didn't work plan b didn't work plan c is going to work he will outlast the west uh... and he can help that uh... what i think mister putin is primarily counting on now is indeed war fatigue but also watching u.s. politics he is in position to affect whether mister uh... mister trump wins the next election or not you may expect hybrid war misinformation misinformation support uh... one way or another for mister trump's return to power but also for support for weakening resolve all across europe so that he's openly now funding the most far right and far left forces inside europe in order to slowly but surely dismember the e.u. in terms of its attitude toward what's going on this is a game that's being played out in front of us bill and we have to realize that's what's going on we have to say that ukraine not only should be rewarded for his bravery but because they are fighting our fight for us justice president's lindsey has said here in our parliament i hope this is not the scenario that we're going to have to face but let's let's talk about the what if here uh... if if putin is successful and i i don't necessarily if that means russian troops marching and planning to flag downtown kiev but if he is whether or not you know there's a quote-unquote negotiated settlement and they end up with a lot more land what does that do to nato budgeted which was a set up essentially to try to curtail this kind of behavior it it it kind of puts them in the same category i guess as many people feel about the united nations great intentions but you guys don't have any backbone and nobody pays attention to what you say nato is if not already more going down that road runs the risk of of of having that same accusation probably justifiably laid on them that where are the nato leaders here that are jumping up and down and saying we need to do something about this yes we are uh... as institute for study of wars put out we are working against our own best self-interest it's a it's an own goal if we allow mr putin just basically to outlast us and then to dismember the unity that he helped create nato is far more united now and we have to remind ourselves canada is an important player within nato within this conflict in particular because we are supporting in latvia a broad nato reinforcement of the front line the nato states facing most imminently russia and uh... there's no doubt at all that mr putin succeeds he will continue to try by all kinds of means take apart the u and nato in terms of their ability to actually respond to further aggression that's why it's you know pay now or pay later it's not impossible you'll end up with nato troops eventually having to confront russian troops uh... we should stand back on other stuff as well uh... that's the name of the nuclear issue which you and i keep talking about mr putin has shaped this war by threatening repeatedly if you carry on like you know you're going off against us and he now is reformulating what he's up to in ukraine and he changed his position or denazify it the west is after us and he's got an election coming which he's going to win but he's consolidating anti-western nationalist forces there if he's allowed to uh... carry on in that fashion then indeed uh... latvia, lithuania, estonia and we have tripwire troops as part of a broader nato exercise there will nato be able to respond if it's weakened internally this is the kind of great game we're talking about this is not an idle you know it's way over there that war is just going to go on we have to remember that a major state is brutalizing absolutely brutalizing a neighboring state just because it feels like it uh... this massive missile attack that has just occurred uh... russia has just been attacking all across ukraine the largest uh... almost of the war so far ukraine is now we should stand back a bit and say okay what about the ukrainian side the ukrainian side not only is being very brave but they're also being quite successful in a lot of ways one we talk about the failure of the counter offensive but the russians also have failed in their counter offensive uh... with a much larger force much superior force well dug in defensive forces as we know from world war one french warfare defensive forces have an advantage but they have so far failed to change the balance along that thousand kilometer line meanwhile russia has uh... started to pay more of a cost mr putin wins in part because not only does he lull us into long-term uh... uh... lack of resistance but at home nobody's paying the cost at home he's hidden this war from the people of russia uh... many many soldiers that are dying we've seen huge numbers of russian troops lost they're not actually ethnic russians they're from the minority areas the ethnic russian central population saint petersburg to moscow has not been paying a cost now the war is being brought home pinprick uh... but effective countermeasures inside russia itself crimea is now being put in play uh... the bastion the bastion for russia is their their hold on crimea goal of right now the main goal right now of this war is to break crimea away from russian control there's no activity daily uh... the the ukrainians we have a new plan for the russian military they're all going to be uh... the navy they're all going to be part of the submarine force because they've been so successful actually in sinking a major components of the black sea fleet of the russians so the ukraine is showing enormous strength and durability ingenuity and uh... effectiveness in ways which i don't think they get the credit for as we talk about well they're really going to have to get all parts of their territory aren't they they have to settle we cannot allow that thinking to prevail in twenty twenty four well and uh... we circle back to the politics of it too because the political voices that are suggesting that is a viable alternative though their war is not ours uh... are one step away from gaining power in some of those countries and that that's somewhat problematic uh... you mentioned about uh... you know our attention gets swayed and and and obviously the gaza situation is is uh... i guess what's uh... taking up a lot of the oxygen right now when we start talking with global conflict unjustifiably so uh... the united states initially of course after the initial slaughter uh... by by the the rebels of the troops that were uh... went across the border and killed so many uh... israelis uh... strong support for president biden and from a number of other countries as well but as this drags on and and uh... just to use your point about how politics and and and and and conflict can be so interwoven uh... it seems to me now that this the longer this this conflict goes on the longest shelling of of gaza goes on it's netanyahu seems to think it's to his benefit uh... that that shows that he's a strong man he's he's supporting uh... his country and he said he's defending them interest group of and and and supporting it as it has waned considerably over the last little while because of the methodology that he continues to do this right uh... at what point does the world and the global community stand back and say look at we support israel and we support israel's right to defend their bond but uh... there's there's a fine line between supporting it and and basically obliterating of people in in gaza well it's you know mister putin's saying we'll stand by we'll win by it our plan is we will outlast the rest of them we can endure pain what's going on now is that we are uh... the three phases of hamas' strategy is working uh... their first phase is they go in and commit an atrocity uh... then they uh... second phase is israelis have to retaliate the third phase is the world leans on israel to stop allowing them to reconstitute and to do it all again uh... anthony blinken and it's working brilliantly anthony blinken has said we know better it's not going to happen to secretary of state of the u.s. we know that's their strategy we aren't going to let it succeed this time but it's very difficult to not let that strategy succeed uh... hamas is a terrorist organization designated since two thousand two in december by canada and by most of the rest of the world not turkey interestingly but most of the rest of the world uh... considers hamas a terrorist organization israel was traumatized and shown to be vulnerable traumatized in ways which i don't think is is uh... currently being understood any longer because suddenly because the strategy works so well for hamas now oh look what's happening to the gossens these are hamas's involuntary martyrs as part of their strategy and it's working uh... unfortunately far too well there's way too many casualties there everybody wants it i want it to stop everybody wants it to stop but leaving hamas in position then to just reconstitute and do it again is in nobody's interest in the west certainly not in canada's interest and not in canada's policy either although there's been some questioning of that the window for israel always closes uh... the attack happens the response happens israel's leaned on because once they respond what the world sees the devastation inside gaza and focuses only on that narrowly and strictly it also factors into the much broader long long long standing of palestinian israeli confrontation and well organized groups that are always there now are using this as if hamas wants a two-state solution they're not interested in a two-state solution they're interested in the elimination of israel standing back further from that and looking forward into the future i think we have to also realize the degree to which iran is the primary factor in all of this and we are omitting that and we are because of our justifiable concern with the day-to-day terrible horrible images coming out of gaza iran really uh... i think initiated this uh... they provided the training they provided the military means they also i think provided the timing israel had gotten itself into an internal domestic mess invited adventurism hamas is uh... clearly just uh... big supported by iran i hope that twenty twenty four is the year when iran comes into focus for their role because it isn't simply a palestinian gaza issue an israel issue it's also in lebanon this is not a palestinian issue it's an iranian supported terrorist organization imposing its will on the population as hamas does in gaza and back home in iran where once again the ayatollah's regime has with great violence put down the most recent uprising against them they're on a roll iran wants to push america out of the middle east uh... russia wants to help on that and a lot of what we see in front of us is the great game not the particular game until i start seeing protesters in the streets saying hamas out of gaza hezbollah out of lebanon the ayatollah's out of iran i don't think we're facing seriously the nature of the great game that's going on and that is leading to so many deaths and instability the instability of the world in twenty twenty four is centering primarily i think on what iran is doing along with russia and we haven't even talked about china's role and what might happen in taiwan as we go forward. well they're watching us right now and clearly what's happened over the last eighteen months would embolden them and i guess g can play the waiting game there too but the debate has become so polarized uh... that even uh... you know as i made a statement i'm sure me and many many others have said look at it i am pro-israeli but i'm not in favor of the decimation of of palestinians uh... i'm anti-hamas uh... but you know i i don't want to see this happen and i i support the elimination of hamas but do you do it by just leveling the whole country uh... you know the tens of thousands of people that have died in this conflict now uh... i'm going to wager right now they're not all hamas and we know that to be true i'm not trying to be cynical here and i'm not trying to be flippant but there are an awful lot of innocent people and i don't know why innocent people always die in these sorts of conflicts but you know if there's a hamas headquarters under a hospital and there's three hundred people in the hospital you just bomb the crap out of it and kill the three hundred people and hope that you get a few hamas soldiers too where's the discussion about the role that hamas has and for those people that are rallying in downtown toronto and hamilton and ottawa and other places that are saying you know free, free palestine free them from what from from hamas because they don't seem to say that they don't make that distinction the crap that was going on and the shit that was falling down on palestinians from hamas has been going on for years long before this started this latest income but nobody seems to want to talk about that nor bring it into the conversation they want to make israel to be the bad guys and the palestinians to be the victims and that's true to a point but there's a third player in here that they don't want to talk about yes, as i put it this is part of the hamas playbook it's played out brilliantly, it's almost inevitable and indeed one never hears the word hamas in all of this conversation these are, as i put it, involuntary martyrs to the hamas cause uh... it's pre- it's as meticulously planned as what the initial attack is what's going on as we see in front of us, keeping in mind that the field commanders are the ones up above but the uh... the operative commanders, the more senior commanders are down in those tunnels hidden away and the political leadership which can actually call an end to this by releasing hostages among other things they are not living anywhere near there, they are living in glorious uh... splendid uh... luxurious headquarters in qatar and back into turkey back and forth they are paying no cost at all on this and this war will continue until until such time as hamas itself decides uh... we've had enough israel has been traumatized in ways which i think is underestimated by all of this and the hostage situation is putting pressure on any government so uh... until hamas as our foreign secretary said, as Zalia said, until hamas is removed as a governing force and military threat this war is likely to continue what about the other player here and i'm talking about netanyahu himself yes he's uh... this is not an anti-israeli guy, he's a bad guy he's government corruption, he's facing more charges he tried, we talk about trump if he gets re-elected is going to move into a totalitarian force and form of government netanyahu's already made that first step, now the court shot down a lot of what he's trying to do there but it's very much of an authoritarian government i get the sense, Elliot, there's no way netanyahu's going to agree to any sort of a negotiated peace here he just wants to obliterate hamas and i don't disagree with that sentiment uh... but realistically how many people are going to have to die and how long is this going to take uh... one commentator i saw on one of the u.s. shows the other day said this isn't going to end until netanyahu is removed from office or is is voted out, whatever the case might be uh... this is not the first conflict again since nineteen forty eight when israel was formed by the united nations uh... whether it's a seven day war, there's a long list of these conflicts they are usually negotiated settlements, now they don't last long unfortunately but it is a way for people to get around the table and come to some conclusion i don't see that happening here with the present players i don't think anybody wants to sit across the table from each other yes, keep an eye on egypt, they traditionally ultimately are the ones that arrange and broker something that really lasts and there has been a transformation of the countries that took part in those earlier wars came to terms with the fact uh... we're not going to achieve our goals of eliminating israel we attacked them during their most holy days, we attack them when they're not watching they turn around and win those wars uh... we can go into a lot of details i don't think pinning this on the personality of mr. netanyahu as the primary cause of the continuation of this conflict is accurate it's certainly mr. netanyahu and his political military problems, his problems of you know the court case, you can argue that he's uh... his preoccupation with staying out of jail is certainly one cause of the internal dissent within israel the primary cause uh... because he made deals with the far right in order to sustain himself by protecting himself against the courts it's a long long story but the point is that mr. netanyahu if he's replaced by Benny Gantz the war against Hamas is going to continue uh... no matter who's in charge in israel the atrocities that were committed, the fact that terrorism just it's a recurring phenomenon uh... the israelis can't live with that nor should they be, no country should have to live with that yes, mr. netanyahu is a polarizing figure, I'm not a I'm not going to comment one way or another I'm not a voter in israel he's now at seven percent support in the polls and Benny Gantz is only at thirty four percent uh... israel is not heading toward authoritarianism uh... it is a overly vibrant, overly dynamic democracy that's why they have four elections in four years and so forth this is not this war we're seeing in Gaza right now and how it's being conducted is strictly because of Hamas, not because of mr. netanyahu any leader of israel would have to respond the alternatives, I've been watching very carefully how are we going to get out of this? the very best minds uh... say, Friedman and the new york times they talk about about solutions that veer on wishful thinking yes, definitely the PA, the palestinian authority is going to come back into Gaza well, uh... okay uh... but it has to be rejuvenated rejuvenated and reinvigorated well that means the current leadership has to agree to disappear and due course a brand new more peace-loving more competent, less corrupt leadership is going to come in we're talking about that would be nice my central point here is nobody knows what to do about it, nobody wants Gaza the Egyptians don't want them the Arab states around them are saying don't count on us to bring in peacekeeping forces, we don't want them Egypt most emphatically will not accept them uh... so Gaza is uh... in need of a democratic uh... future the government has to rest not on Hamas terrorism but on the elected representatives of the people of Gaza and that's what we have to look forward to there's some uh... historic precedent uh... the United Nations in Cambodia is the one I look to but uh... right now we are into a terrible impassable uh... situation where Hamas needs to be eliminated everybody agrees on that except you know Hamas and meanwhile the whole western, the whole Arab world is being inflamed so we are into a long-term situation where again I will circle back saying 2024 should be the year where the role of Iran backstopped by an increasing alliance with Russia and backstopped quietly by China and North Korea this kind of axis which is emerging needs to come into focus as that's where you have to look for stability going forward uh... Elliot we'll have to leave it there for the time being but as you say it's a very very uh... tense situation a very fluid situation and we look forward to future discussions on the podcast with that thanks so much for being with us today I really appreciate it well I hope it's a happy new year with your family and and personally with you and I look forward to working with you in 2024 Bill thanks so much Elliot take care uh... talking about uh... the international situation we'll do that with Elliot and other guests too that's it for this edition of the podcast thanks so much spread the word if you enjoyed this one uh... go wherever you get your podcast and check out the Bill Kelly podcast critical discussions for our critical times until next time take care this podcast was brought to you by Rebecca Wissons and her team at Wissons Law Rebecca Wissons is a twenty-time winner of the Hamilton Reader's Choice Awards for their exceptional client care and legal practice specializing in personal injury car accidents accidental falls and Wilson Estates now if you or a loved one have been seriously injured or if you want to make sure that your family is taken care of for the future with the will and powers of attorney call Rebecca Wissons nine oh five five two two eleven oh two for a free consultation when life happens you can rely on Rebecca Wissons on Wissons Law and trust me Rebecca is my wife I don't know what I'd do without her that's Wissons Law nine oh five five two two eleven oh two for a free consultation subscribe to my sub stack for timely news updates and commentary straight to your inbox let's keep the conversation going I'd love to hear your thoughts on today's episode let me know what you think we should be talking about next by contacting me through my website at www.billkelly.co thanks for tuning in this is bill kelly till next time you take care