ep 12 lori

The host discusses current critical events in the Middle East, Ukraine, and the United States. They then shift focus to recent political developments in Canada, particularly regarding Justin Trudeau and Pierre Paulio. A poll shows that Trudeau's popularity has declined, while Paulio is not well-liked by the Canadian public. The host and guest discuss the importance of likability in political leaders and how it may impact elections. They also mention that Paulio's supporters are very vocal on social media, despite his negative reputation. The guest emphasizes the rise of personality-based politics and the ability of politicians to shape their own image through social media. welcome to the bill kelly podcast critical discussions in critical times here's your host bill kelly and welcome to another edition of the bill kelly podcast critical discussions in critical times and these are indeed critical times these days as uh... we speak to you this morning uh... the middle east of course is is rather tenuous situation we don't know what's gonna be happening there in the war now between hamas and israel uh... ukrainian situation seems to be uh... having some downturns for the ukrainian president zelensky very concerned about aid that's going to happen of the united states government seems to be on fire right now uh... they don't have a speaker they haven't given any money up to ukraine or to israel uh... they're ready to to break the government down once again with another debt ceiling crisis and we're going to get to all that in in shows in in the next couple of days here but uh... as we look at all of those facets we still don't want to lose sight of what's happening here in this country some rather interesting political developments over the last little while that we want to cover on the program today and uh... to do that we're so pleased to welcome to our program uh... doctor laurie turnbull doctor turnbull is the professor and chair of public and international affairs of the house university uh... laurie always a pleasure thanks for making some time for us today thank you to thanks so much for having me uh... there's a number of things i want to talk about here we can get into public opinion polls here too because i know that uh... there's another one released today the angus reid that indicates that the liberals are eleven points behind the conservatives uh... which is not surprising that's been a trend in the last little while and look at those numbers are under the guise of look at this is a snapshot in time and we don't think there's going to be an election anytime soon although i guess nothing is carved in stone these days but what i found interesting about the numbers uh... from this particular poll are the uh... the the the numbers about justin trudeau and pierre paulio as individuals as potential leaders and we know that that the prime minister's numbers have been on a steady decline for the last little while but pierre paulio is just not latching on to the canadian public uh... the numbers that as i see from the poll today lori indicate that uh... fewer than two and five of you paulio favorably and that's very much the same as it was last year but that same number hold a very strong unfavorable favorable opinion of him uh... almost fifty percent of the people that said that we just don't like this guy uh... do you have to like somebody to make them the leader of the country probably not i mean uh... sometimes it helps like i think there was a big likability factor with justin trudeau in 2015 uh... there was a you could see like there was a move uh... even among NDP voters for example toward trudeau for different reasons i think the electoral reform promise was one of them uh... reconciliation that that sort of thing but he had this kind of personal charisma that he was able to get a lot of uh... a lot of support now that doesn't last right as we see like even in the 2019 election some of the shine had come off trudeau by that point and so it seemed like some of the likability that had contributed to his big win in 2015 was kind of fraying and that happens over time like it absolutely does to any political leader i think uh... it seems to me paulio has stalled he's got as many negatives as he has positives he has done some work on managing his image and letting people get to know him a little more softening his rhetoric softening his look and then he kind of goes up and down with that a little bit it seems like he's not really able to get past where he is now in terms of popularity and both of the major leaders are in that position where they seem like as many people dislike them as like them is that a big problem for trudeau i think so is that a big problem for paulio i think less so if people are looking for an alternative he doesn't need everybody to like him and they would have very specific and precise math on what they need for him to get across that threshold and he doesn't need like he could form a majority government even if the numbers right now stay the same we've seen in the past and i know the comparison is often made between uh... paulio and his old boss steven harper uh... in the two thousand six election january two thousand six when harper actually did defeat paul martin uh... canadians didn't have a whole lot of love for steven harper at that time either but they didn't hate him they didn't dislike him they just weren't warm and fuzzy towards him in any way shape or form they just got tired of the liberals and they moved to harper but there's a strong strong segment of the population that just don't like paulio right and i i totally agree with you there was not the same negative reaction to harper there were people who didn't like him but lots of people who didn't like him voted for him too it wasn't a hate thing it was just a okay he's not our favorite guy but what he's saying in terms of economic policy makes sense to me i could back that up and if people if given the voter fatigue of the liberals at the time he presented an option he presented an alternative that was reasonable to enough people i don't think harper was a big liability to them in terms of the likability factor yes the warm and fuzzy that wasn't there i don't think people cared about that for pauliev yeah there are people who cannot fathom the idea of him being prime minister but i think we're living in a world now where leaders are no longer trying to appeal to everybody like i think there was a time where you'd know as a political leader not everyone's going to like me but i'm going to do my damn best to make sure that as many people do as possible and i'm going to try to put a vision out there that appeals to as many people as humanly possible we're going to build a big tent like that was the politics of decades ago now it's the politics of division where the leaders in the parties know and part of this is that the kind of technology we have and the ability for us to know very specifically you know where is that what what level of support do you need and where does it need to come from in order to build a majority government or even a minority or whatever that he knows he doesn't need everyone to like him it doesn't actually matter like if a person who is not going to vote for polyeth kind of doesn't like him or hates him it doesn't matter like and for him i think as much as his own negatives are are not something for him to be excited about he can look at Trudeau's negatives and say you know if i can get people to not vote for him even if they don't vote for me that's almost as good as a conservative vote depending on where the ballot is cast or not like if he manages to give enough reason to depress the liberal vote so that they don't come out then he's he's making gains from that right and then he's got the people who are going to come out for him and so it actually like it looks bad when you see those negatives piling up but from his perspective it actually might not matter that much it's it's an acquired taste i guess maybe that's the way to categorize Pierre Pauliev and a lot of politicians exactly what was that old line i think it was a beer company years ago uh... their tagline was those who like it like it a lot and i noticed that with Pauliev well there you go there you go one of my favorites ok that's why i remember the slogan and my first beer uh... Keith's actually on the pier in Halifax a number of years ago that's another long story uh... but you notice this for instance on social media and one of the latest tropes of course is about this interview that i know you've seen too but uh... they call this guy a journalist i don't know who it was that was talking to him but it was in an orchard Pauliev is munching on an apple not paying a whole lot of attention and being rather dismissive and and some suggest arrogance uh... but if you look at some of the comments on on x uh... where the videos were posted his fans are out there saying boy what a put this is the guy we want they just love this guy uh... they don't see uh... any of that arrogance that other people seem to and you juxtapose that with the the angus reed results here would say that most half the country just don't like this guy at all but the ones who do like them like him a whole lot and and let's face it we've seen that in politics and we learn with that that can carry through an election and i think another thing is that we're in this world of like celebrity politics brand politics where the personality of the leader is a lot more important in terms of who people are electing and why than it would have been years ago i mean i think we know more about the personal lives the personal brands how politicians carry themselves there's much more in terms of targeted messaging to voters and so polyethyl packaging himself a certain way he knows that because of social media he can do that himself he doesn't need the mass media to carry him he can put his own youtube up and people who watch it and so it's not the same as when politicians had to go into a packed hall and try to get people excited which i think they all did in a very similar way now they're trying to sell themselves and so personality is not going to appeal to everybody right like for as many people are instead of using the values of the party instead of using the brand and the legacy of the party the leaders are selling themselves and if they sell themselves some people are going to really like them and some people are going to really not and if you're selling yourself you have to be strong your personality has to carry you have to have enough to kind of get people's attention and some of that attention will be negative i think it's the time we're living in and unless and until that changes and i don't know i don't know about that i think we're going to continue to see these very high positive and very high negative reactions we're not talking about policies and values you're talking about whether you like somebody that's a very different kind of question just couple days ago the NDP had their policy convention in hamilton and uh... we're going to talk about that in just a second but i mean in one of the comments uh... jagmeet singh was reaffirmed as as leader numbers were down but he got talking about his two opponents about trudeau and about uh... pauliev and he mentioned at that time he says you know pauliev is selling hatred and anger uh... and i don't disagree with that uh... what jagmeet singh didn't say was it's working uh... you know it when people are really pissed off like you know if they just had to renew their mortgage and now the payments are double what they were a year ago they're angry and and pauliev is is is poking that that that's all right there he's not saying it necessarily he's got the solution but he says this is happening because of justin trudeau i saw the evidence everything that's wrong in the world today is justin trudeau's fault according to pauliev and his loyal supporters are buying into that you know if it's raining in ottawa today well that's trudeau's fault if the roads closed because of construction that's trudeau's fault and that when you're angry you need to focus that and and that seems to be what's happening right now uh... and and like i like to say that politics and pauliev and his people seem to understand that you know what when when you see somebody that's twisting in the wind like the liberals seem to be these days sometimes the best strategies just stand back and let it happen uh... i know that may be frustrating for jagmeet singh it's certainly frustrating for justin trudeau uh... but it seems to be working for the conservatives at least you know when you look at the big picture here and i think the other thing too is when when people are angry there's usually another emotion there the anger is sitting on top of something and in this case i think in many people's cases right now i think the anger is sitting on top of fear fear that you're not going to be able to make your rent you're not going to be able to make your mortgage you're not going to be able to help your kids as well as you thought you would you're not going to be able to buy a house or get a place to live at all whatever education you have is not going to lead to a job you're not going to have enough to cover your groceries like wherever you are there are more people who are afraid and so then when that is the root of the anger then it becomes much more likely that people are looking for a change because it's easy to say everything is justin trudeau's fault even if it's not true you know and even if he's the status quo he's the prime minister nobody can say that whatever policy that's being applied right now is polio's fault because he's not the leader he's not the prime minister he's got a period of time that will end obviously if he becomes prime minister this whole scare tactic thing is not going to work for him if he actually wins the election then he has to totally pivot and i mean of course everybody does right like whenever you're the opposition leader you're running to be the prime minister yes you're going to have to change your approach if you win but in his case it seems to be very stark like he's really going down the line of this is the government's fault he's raising issues with institutions of our governing you know he's raising issues with governing institutions that actually aren't political and have nothing to do with justin trudeau and are not controlled by him like he's really plucking away at people's distrust of the system more broadly and i can't help but think that is going to bite him at some point if he wins let's swing back to the NDP and their policy convention uh... just a couple of days ago since the day they struck this deal with the liberal government the trudeau government there's been an awful lot of criticism nationwide about jagmeet singh propping up that was the phrase you hear more often than not propping up the liberal government uh... i guess you know putting up with some some rather controversial pieces of legislation all on the proviso that the stuff on their wish list uh... is going to be provided for and and and of course i guess the number one issue and we talked about it again at this policy convention uh... was national pharma care dental care all these things that have been some of the the major planks of the NDP uh... but how many times can justin or can just jagmeet singh threatened to pull his support i mean this is kind of like the guy who cried wolf at some point isn't it you know when they when the deal was fresh and he said he's i'm not i'm considering doing that i think and he mentioned that even during the covid crisis when some of the government spending started to just balloon well you know what we we have to look at this and if we pull support the government goes down and now that's white noise i think to most people in ottawa now isn't it yeah sure jagmeet you're not going to do that at all but that's still something that he's trying to hold over the government right now and i i don't think it's working i don't think it's working either uh... i don't think in my view and i guess i you know we'll find out what the answer is at some point but i don't think this was ever really a great idea for the nbp and i think they were all this was totally unnecessary to enter into some like it's not a coalition an actual almost contractual agreement in that they put something out there in writing committed themselves to supporting the liberals on these things they were supported the liberals on those things anyway and liberals would have done anyway yeah there's probably a couple things maybe we wouldn't have gotten you know the exact specifics on dental care maybe we would have there's not a whole lot of like honestly there's not a whole lot of policy space between trudeau and jagmeet singh and it's going to be hard i think for the nbp to be able to take any credit for any of this because people are not that's not necessarily what they're listening to people are still extremely concerned about the affordability crisis as far as the politics of it no i don't think anybody is taking jagmeet singh seriously at this point if he's out there saying well we'll defeat the government you know what you don't actually have to do that they could they have a little space in another step where they could say we're not necessarily out to defeat the government but we no longer want to be part of this confidence and supply agreement anymore right like we we actually want to tear that up and say this hasn't worked and from now on we'll be getting we'll be supporting the government on an ad hoc basis i don't even know if anyone would listen to that though like i i think at this point it seems like the liberals and the conservatives are dominating the conversation and the NDP are trying to get in and i'm not sure that that's happening there were rumbles of discontent within the NDP caucus when this deal was struck a number of weeks uh... but they're just kind of hey just give it time give it time and and and so that was kind of passed over but we heard it this past weekend uh... during this policy convention in hamilton an awful lot of NDP supporters uh... members of the the party that are now saying it's time to pull the plug on this they're not saying threaten to do it they're saying just pull the plug get this guy out of here i think part of that frustration might be when we look at some of these numbers laurie you know the liberals are are tanking right now they're not doing well at all in any of these polls the conservatives are up by eleven points but the NDP are not moving up and uh... it could well be some pushback because of this deal i think canadians that don't like trudeau are all of a sudden not liking the NDP because they're saying well he's still there because of you guys so we have to punish you as well and i think i think that's causing certain paranoia with the NDP but what's that old line you're not paranoid they really are out to get you and that might be the feeling that a lot of them are thinking right now yeah and i think too to just add another layer on top of that even party loyalties are becoming more complex and that voters are moving around more even if we look at the last ontario election doug ford ended up getting support from a lot of private sector unions that we would typically think you know the workers supporting the NDP well not now not necessarily uh... there's more traffic across those lines and so even now like some polls are showing the liberals are actually feeding some like they're actually losing some support to the NDP so we can imagine the water pouring in on that side but there's a leak of support from the NDP to the conservatives because people who are thinking about affordability workers who are thinking about you know hey i'm working my butt off over here why am i so scared all the time why am i not more secure they're looking around and again if jigneet singh has been too close to the liberals and you're looking for an alternative to that he has not put enough space between himself and the liberals so if you're looking for an alternative you're going to look at polly f and if he's saying the type you know he's not stupid like he's he's doing this like he's making these appeals to hard-working canadians who still can't afford you know they're doing everything right and they can't make ends meet polly f is right there having a conversation and so i think we'll see a lot of like these and this will play out differently in each riding in each province so he he's in a pretty complex situation right now well i guess you can take that from the uh... the doug ford playbook from the last election as you say uh... you know the economy was starting to to show some signs of deteriorating and ford basically went to the trade unions and said i'm going to guarantee you guys get your jobs i'm gonna make sure that you guys are going to be okay through all of this and some of the major trade unions the auto workers uh... liyuna others that have traditionally supported as you say either the ndp or the liberals went to ford and polly f seems to be using that same playbook right now to try to grab them you know and whether it doesn't matter if you're a trade unionist or whatever you are if if you're afraid you're going to lose your house and this guy says no i can make sure that's not going to happen you're going to listen yeah and there's a there's an interesting appeal that polly f is making you know me and he he does the thing where i i think it's a lot in american politics but he talks about this you know i'll almost like this specific person this person who lives on vancouver island their mortgages now seventy five hundred dollars a month and that like he makes it very personal but he's singling out you know how how it feels to be in the circumstance as opposed to talking broadly about policy changes he makes it about people and so it's even if sometimes like i find sometimes that his ideas aren't necessarily totally different from what the liberals are proposing actually polly f explains it very differently he explains in terms of how will this affect your life and he explains it in a way that would suggest even if you don't like him that he understands what it feels like for an individual person or an individual family and then he pushes trudeau on you're some rich frat boy who doesn't understand anything and then again to go back to those likability and the negatives being put up i think even though polly f's negatives are sticking around he's still adding to trudeau's negatives he's having a success at that and so again he might be looking at these numbers and thinking this is actually pretty good well and we saw that just last week uh... i guess it was a q and a and i mean these things are all set up and they're structured and scripted a lot of the time but somebody was complaining about trudeau and polly f called him a marxist just like his dad uh... and i mean the pushback on that was immediate i mean my friend charles adler brought a interesting op-ed piece about just the other day i know you saw basically shouting that he's not a marxist and but the problem is is when you don't like a guy like justin trudeau or anybody else you're going to believe everything negative about them and say yeah yeah he is yeah that's what that's what the problem is and so is his old man because they didn't like him either uh... it's not true but misinformation as you say seems to carry the day in politics these days uh... whatever the party affiliation is just tell people what they want to hear instead of what they need to hear and and that's something that they'll just seem to embrace now and they'll believe it yeah it's really frustrating and like that's a huge problem that we're going to have to be dealing with and there's all different ways to deal with it it brings me comfort that there's a backlash when somebody just lies right like and i think that's the way it's not just about sending out competing messages on social media it's also about when people say point blank like that is wrong that is not that's not appropriate you don't need to say you don't need to make things up about your opponent you should probably be able to find enough stuff that's true well especially these days right i mean i'm not a big fan of justin trudeau i don't think he's done a great job there's an awful lot of holes to poke and that was that was my immediate thing and i mentioned that the only time pauliev agreed to come on my show back in the radio days was you don't have to make stuff up mr pauliev there's enough here enough food here for you to just pick this guy apart left right and center on factual information as opposed to having to make stuff up i said when you do it your way you just get characterized as a venomous individual that's going to say anything do anything and that's not the kind of thing you want as a leader no and and honestly like that that will come it comes at a cost for the institution it comes at a cost for the voter it cheapens everything whether people hold pauliev to account for that kind of thing at the ballot box or not it's still you know take things seriously do not throw things around about people just because you think that enough people are going to be like oh yeah he is a marxist come on if you want to be the prime minister be a serious person and don't do stupid throwaway lines like that because you think it's going to have people what like going to make them laugh it's going to make them hate trudeau a little more like uh... we'll leave it at that for now as to how the prime minister is going to react as i say there's a number of things going on globally uh... as a matter of fact the prime minister as we speak this morning is still in ottawa meeting with caribbean leaders about the the environment that's uh... still one of the major planks of course for the liberal government uh... but we're watching some of the other activities as well and uh... we'll update this a little bit later on on our next edition of it laurie as always thank you so much for this always a pleasure talking with you thank you to go pick your doctor or terrible from the house university on that is another edition of the bill kelly podcast let us know what you think by all means uh... get in touch with us i want to comments good bad and ugly and uh... will be with with you to get in just a couple days as we continue our discussions of the things that are going on in the world until next time i'm bill kelly this podcast was brought to you by rebecca wasn't her team it wasn't long rebecca wasn't as a twenty-time winner the hamilton readers choice awards for their exceptional client care and legal practice specializing in personal injury car accidents accidental falls and wilson estates now if you or a loved one have been seriously injured or if you want to make sure that your family's taking care of for the future with the will of powers of attorney color of equity nine oh five five two two eleven oh two for free consultation when life happens you can rely on rebecca wasn't wasn't 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