230626 Omo on Russian unrest and where to next for Ukraine War

Putin's invasion of Ukraine has caused tension and uncertainty. He hoped for negotiations, but it seems unlikely now. There was an attempted coup, and the commander ended up in Belarus near the border of Kiev. It's predicted that Putin will increase his campaign in certain areas and may threaten Kiev from Belarus. This will only lead to escalation and is not good for anyone. What an interesting weekend. Certainly the situation in Russia has made us rethink how it's going to roll out. Putin invaded Ukraine, rightly or wrongly. There are no good guys in war, they're all thugs, but he's invaded Ukraine and I believe it was with the idea that somebody in the West would negotiate with him. That is clearly not the case. Now he is left with very little alternative. Obviously we have this supposed attempted coup, we've got a very volatile, somewhat mercurial commander, goes for a quick drive to Moscow, does a negotiation and suddenly he and all his troops are in Belarus. Have a quick look at the map and he is now only just across the border from Kiev. A rough guess is that Putin is going to step up the campaign in the Donbass, Luhansk and Kherson areas and that he may end up threatening Kiev with a force positioned from Belarus. This can only lead to an escalation. It won't be good for anyone.